gugliandalf wrote:
That's something that intrigues me.
Let's say you just threw 5 Tails, your chance for a Head keeps being 50%. Right?
But what if you consider next throw as #6 in the serie? Your chance of SIX tails is 1.5% (5 Tails have 3.1%), that would make a Head 98.5% likely.
No, because if you consider next throw as #6 in a row, you have to consider too that you have just threw 5 tails.
So, you have to discard from all possible combination of heads and tails those who don't start with 5 tails (ex: TTTHTH, HTTTHT, TTTHHH and so on).
This leaves you with two possible combination: TTTTTH and TTTTTT, with 50% probability each. |
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