Yeah, that could be it. Anyone on my side of the war knows you're a dangerous opponent.

I'm familiar with the "false bug" that sometimes shows what looks like a worse shot when, in fact, the "better" shot was still on the zero table. But it looks to me like I have at least a 1 shot at the guy 2 hexes away (I happen to have the 'long burst' option set) so it looks like a glitch to me.