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City:HONG KONG, ASIA, EARTH, SOL, MILKY WAY HK
Personal Data:Male, born: January 01 1975
HomePage or other cool site:http://https://www.youtube.com/user/imdog
Membership22years 364days ago.
Last Login202days 1h ago.
Last Move18h 49' ago.
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Message header
Area/Game:Blue Max
Topic:Scenarios
Subject:Re: ????
Posted by: imdog - 18years 136days ago.
Message text
flying_neko wrote:

3) The problem is that in any case the chances for the two planes to win the match are not a priori the same: better pilots might prefer the black camel.

And, in fact, this is the case. Pokerguy was in 341 of these games, with stats of:
  • 91 kills, 24 deaths on the allied camel (79%)
  • 157 kills, 46 deaths on the black camel (77%)
    So these numbers, which are much more homogenous statistically, tell us that Pokerguy is favoured when playing on the allied(!) camel.

    So, if we remove Pokerguy's statistics from the above numbers (because Pokerguy is a really good pilot, and he *can* screw the statistics), we get:

  • 707 - 24 - 157 = 526 kills for the black Camel
  • 609 - 91 - 46 = 472 kills for the allied Camel

    So this means 52.7% kills for the black Camel when we take into account that a very good player plays more often with the black camel than with the allied one... even though he does slightly better on the allied plane than on the black one!

    The expected number of kills would be 499 in this case, and the variance* is 16, so with these improved statistics we are at 1.7 sigmas from the expected result. I am pretty sure that, if one takes into account the fact that many players have played more on different sides, the deviation will be even lower. (This is left as an an exercise to the reader).


  • Conclusion: Avoid facing 1 vs 1 with Pokerguy in this scenario

    Enjoy reading fun

    i.

    P.S. @flying_neko, may I ask if u did Statistic at college

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